Mick Ryan’s Twitter thread arriving at the same conclusion is here:
Eleven days since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. In the past 24 hours, we have seen limited Russian progress in the north and east, and another broken Russian ‘ceasefire’. Today – the war in the south, and why it matters. 1/25 pic.twitter.com/UDMXTaunId
— Major General (just retired!) Mick Ryan (@WarintheFuture) March 7, 2022